Marleycombe ran a place and the silver node couple on the amazing race were eliminated. Australian Speculation is dominating like a Russian hairdresser.
Something that wasn't originally posted here was the observations on Centrebet's opinionated pricing system, priced basically on a teams chance of winning. This is what I observed at the beginning of the week.
Quite simply if you took the best price available for each game and wagered to win $100 Centrebet's selection you would have the following bets and bet amounts. Prices are from Tuesday afternoon.
North Melbourne vs Carlton - $303 on Carlton @ 1.33
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle - $2000 on Western Bulldogs @ 1.05
Geelong vs Adelaide - $31.25 on Adelaide @ 4.20
Sydney vs St Kilda - $675 on St Kilda @ 1.148
Collingwood vs Brisbane - $250 on Collingwood @ 1.40
Melbourne vs Richmond - $285 on Richmond @ 1.35
Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn - $60.60 on Port Adelaide @ 2.65
West Coast vs Essendon - $43.50 on West Coast @ 3.30
Return on confidence based system to return $100 = $668.75
Risk = $3648.80
Wagering a total of $3648.80 for a maximum victory of $800 if all 8 games were selected correctly.
Now let's break this shit down, only the Geelong vs Adelaide selection was incorrect, so if you had wagered exactly as I said you would have made $668.75 from the weekends games. With the glory of hindsight we can clearly see how fucking close we were from a wipeout or a clean sweep.
If that rapist Montagna doesn't score that final minute point for St Kilda and it remains a draw we lose almost half our stake, if Sydney win then we we would be down around $100 for the week regardless of what happened in the rest of the games.
If the cheating umpire in the Richmond vs Melbourne game had actually signalled the game over when the siren went, and that talentless scumstache McMahon somehow kicked a goal, then we would have made around $200 for the week given the same results.
Or had Adelaide kicked straight against Geelong we would have nailed 8/8 games and have $800 to buy new Xbox's and new Incubus shirts.
So in revision, let's calculate our return if we wagered $100 on every game, instead of betting to win $100.
North Melbourne vs Carlton - $100 on Carlton @ 1.33 = $33 profit
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle - $100 on Western Bulldogs @ 1.05 = $5 profit
Geelong vs Adelaide - $100 on Adelaide @ 4.20 = $100 loss
Sydney vs St Kilda - $100 on St Kilda @ 1.148 = $15 profit
Collingwood vs Brisbane - $100 on Collingwood @ 1.40 = $40 profit
Melbourne vs Richmond - $100 on Richmond @ 1.35 = $35 profit
Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn - $100 on Port Adelaide @ 2.65 = $165 profit
West Coast vs Essendon - $100 on West Coast @ 3.30 = $230 profit
Total return on a non confidence based system = $423.00
Risk = $800
Obviously all subject to results, but comparing wagering system 1 to system 2, perhaps it's best to give every game exactly the same respect rather than wagering in weight towards the favourite? Only time will tell, I'll keep posting the numbers on here and we will analyse the patterns to the end of the season.
PEACE.
