Brownlow

Back Dane Swan for the Brownlow medal, Collingwood won enough games and realistically who is going to take votes off of him?

5/1 on Pinnacle Sports.

I mean the guy looks like he drinks jizz for a living but so does every footballer. I hate everyone else in the Brownlow medal market.

Belmont 05/09/2009

Ages since my last update, I just can't be fucked so fuck off.

Race 1 this Saturday, get physical with number 2, 'Waratah's Secret.' It's going to be short but who cares fuck off.

Slam it in with number 5 Roman Time in Race 5, another short one fuck off.

Go the all up fuck off.

Gambloid

A good start to the blog, Port Adelaide ended up starting at 3.00 and winning with relative ease, though beaten in scoring shots they still managed a 3 goal final margin. Like predicted, the best Port Adelaide came out and accounted for a flat Hawthorn and after Essendon dropped a game to West Coast find themselves in the 8. Every television pundit has aids in the face.

Marleycombe ran a place and the silver node couple on the amazing race were eliminated. Australian Speculation is dominating like a Russian hairdresser.

Something that wasn't originally posted here was the observations on Centrebet's opinionated pricing system, priced basically on a teams chance of winning. This is what I observed at the beginning of the week.

Quite simply if you took the best price available for each game and wagered to win $100 Centrebet's selection you would have the following bets and bet amounts. Prices are from Tuesday afternoon.

North Melbourne vs Carlton - $303 on Carlton @ 1.33
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle - $2000 on Western Bulldogs @ 1.05
Geelong vs Adelaide - $31.25 on Adelaide @ 4.20
Sydney vs St Kilda - $675 on St Kilda @ 1.148
Collingwood vs Brisbane - $250 on Collingwood @ 1.40
Melbourne vs Richmond - $285 on Richmond @ 1.35
Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn - $60.60 on Port Adelaide @ 2.65
West Coast vs Essendon - $43.50 on West Coast @ 3.30

Return on confidence based system to return $100 = $668.75
Risk = $3648.80

Wagering a total of $3648.80 for a maximum victory of $800 if all 8 games were selected correctly.

Now let's break this shit down, only the Geelong vs Adelaide selection was incorrect, so if you had wagered exactly as I said you would have made $668.75 from the weekends games. With the glory of hindsight we can clearly see how fucking close we were from a wipeout or a clean sweep.

If that rapist Montagna doesn't score that final minute point for St Kilda and it remains a draw we lose almost half our stake, if Sydney win then we we would be down around $100 for the week regardless of what happened in the rest of the games.

If the cheating umpire in the Richmond vs Melbourne game had actually signalled the game over when the siren went, and that talentless scumstache McMahon somehow kicked a goal, then we would have made around $200 for the week given the same results.

Or had Adelaide kicked straight against Geelong we would have nailed 8/8 games and have $800 to buy new Xbox's and new Incubus shirts.

So in revision, let's calculate our return if we wagered $100 on every game, instead of betting to win $100.

North Melbourne vs Carlton - $100 on Carlton @ 1.33 = $33 profit
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle - $100 on Western Bulldogs @ 1.05 = $5 profit
Geelong vs Adelaide - $100 on Adelaide @ 4.20 = $100 loss
Sydney vs St Kilda - $100 on St Kilda @ 1.148 = $15 profit
Collingwood vs Brisbane - $100 on Collingwood @ 1.40 = $40 profit
Melbourne vs Richmond - $100 on Richmond @ 1.35 = $35 profit
Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn - $100 on Port Adelaide @ 2.65 = $165 profit
West Coast vs Essendon - $100 on West Coast @ 3.30 = $230 profit

Total return on a non confidence based system = $423.00
Risk = $800

Obviously all subject to results, but comparing wagering system 1 to system 2, perhaps it's best to give every game exactly the same respect rather than wagering in weight towards the favourite? Only time will tell, I'll keep posting the numbers on here and we will analyse the patterns to the end of the season.



PEACE.

The Amazing Race

I am offering 1.02 on 'Linda and Steve' getting eliminated on tonight's episode of 'The Amazing Race'


And I quote,

Mel

why do spaz people go on it with their mums!

Referring to the deaf kid.

Northam Race 6

Let's get physical.

Have something small each way on Marleycombe, number 3, race 6 @ 15.35 in sunny booming Northam. General Mosville should win, but we that means we would have to back a favourite, UP YOUR ASS PROBABILITY.


One of Northam's many attractions that enables you to not actually set foot in Northam.

Welcome, bastards, brawlers and orphans

I'll start this blog off with a game that is the most crucial to date in the AFL season, both Port Adelaide and Hawthorn sit outside the 8, Port at 10th and Hawthorn 9th, so a win here is just paramount here for both sides.

So let's look at the odds.

Betting
Port Adelaide - 2.69 (Bettingwest)
Hawthorn - 1.54 (Pinnacle)

The market is currently sitting at 102%, so let's break this game down before the teams are named and anticipate any fluctuations on top price.

Home/Away
Sunday's game is at AAMI stadium, Port Adelaide's home and a ground they have had good success at in 2009, 7 wins - 2 losses, beaten only by Adelaide (last week) and St Kilda (undefeated). Hawthorn's record on the road (ignoring Aurora which sits at 50%) in 2009 sits at 1 win and 3 losses.

Last 5 matches head to head,

Port 3 - Hawthorn 2. With the previous meeting being earlier in Round 4, Port Adelaide winning away at the MCG by 30 points.

Recent form,

Port Adelaide in round 17 were simply embarrassed last week by state rivals Adelaide (5th) losing by 70 points, in round 16 they easily accounted for the dogshit West Coast Eagles (14th) at home by 36 points, round 15 saw them lose by 11 points to the equally dogshit Melbourne (16th) side and in round 14 they thumped the 'in-form' Brisbane Lions (6th) by 48 points at AAMI. Massive inconsistency considering losses to Melbourne and victory over Brisbane were only a week apart, inconsistent yes but in the pattern of Port Adelaide this year, hardly surprising.

Hawthorn blew it against Geelong, they had the cats on the ropes, let them back in and watch Josh Kennedy explode under the pressure, turfing off a hand pass that was never there. They lost by one point against the staggering drunk Geelong side (2nd) at the MCG, the previous week they easily accounted for the hot streaked Collingwood side (3rd) by 45 points, in round 15 Hawthorn played one good quarter in torrential rain against a struggling North Melbourne (13th) winning by 9 points, in round 14 they lost by 88 points against the Western Bulldogs (3rd.) Seemingly this Hawthorn side is back to it's 2008 form, but I wouldn't be relying on it.

Stats,

Port Adelaide are currently averaging 4.7 more disposals a game, 0.5 more goals, 2.5 more clearances, 0.3 more contested possessions, but 1.4 more skill errors a game.

Port average 13.5 goals for and 15.1 goals against per game

Hawthorn are averaging 1.4 more tackles, 5.1 more frees against and 4.1 more one percenters.

Hawthorn average 13.0 goals for and 13.8 goals against per game.

These numbers are perhaps flattering for Port Adelaide, considering a perceived return to form for Hawthorn, but it's still basically the same personnel delivering these numbers each week for both sides.

Final Opinion,

There doesn't appear to be any massive team changes for either side, but something to monitor when teams are released at 15.00WST, nothing I can really see to influence my opinion or the market, but I will hold off until then anyway.

My biggest problem with Port Adelaide in 2009, is that they are clearly a team with such rich talent in most areas on the ground but mentally they continually disappoint, shameful ass fuckings one week, inspired victories the next. Two factors quell those problems, Mark William's general direction as a long term coach after just being re-signed and the fact that this game DEFINITELY matters, it's for a spot in the finals, being that I am confident we will see the best of Port Adelaide this week. Now whether that is better than Hawthorn's best is to be seen.

It's not that I think Port Adelaide are certain to win this week, how could I possibly think that with their bi-polar behaviour on the field? And I understand that not all betting markets are derived from statistics, form, H2H, emotion and general public consensus, but in my opinion, this market is wrong and I think you should be having something on Port Adelaide at the 2.69 you can get with the good men at Bettingwest (www.bettingwest.com.au)

I suggest a medium bet @ 2.69

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